Theory of Intelligence
MATH FOR AI•Statistics•Sampling And Monte Carlo•4.2 Importance Sampling

Introduction

Estimating expectations under one distribution using samples from another, with proposal distributions and importance weights.

Introduction

Plain Monte Carlo needs samples from the distribution pp you care about. But sometimes pp is hard to sample from, or the events you care about are so rare that almost no samples hit them. Importance sampling draws from an easier proposal distribution qq instead and corrects with weights. It is used for rare-event estimation, off-policy reinforcement learning (learning from another policy's data), and evaluating likelihoods in latent-variable models.

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