Theory of Intelligence
MATH FOR AI•Statistics•Sampling And Monte Carlo•4.1 Monte Carlo Estimation

Introduction

Estimating expectations by averaging random samples, and how the error shrinks with sample size.

Introduction

Many quantities in ML are expectations that are impossible to compute exactly: the expected loss over all possible data, an integral over a posterior, the gradient of an expectation in a VAE or in reinforcement learning. Monte Carlo estimation replaces the exact integral with an average over random samples. Every mini-batch gradient is a Monte Carlo estimate.

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